EKIP– Expert Club for Economics and Politics A Different Opinion
The Americans still have a strategic advantage in both energy and military terms. However, the focus on Asia could prove to be a double-edged sword for the United States, allowing China to quietly expand its influence in a key part of the world.
Martin Vladimirov
China overtook the United States as the world's largest importer of crude oil and petroleum products in December 2012. The Asian giant imported an average of 6.12 million barrels per day in the last month of last year. Meanwhile, US net imports fell to 5.98 million barrels. This is the lowest level since 1992. On an annual basis, the United States still leads China by almost 1.4 million barrels, but the trend is clear. China will soon become the world's main importer.
Where does this change come from?
Of course, the main reason for the increase in Chinese oil imports is the extremely rapid economic development. The Chinese economy has been growing by an average of 8-9% over the past decade, which indirectly leads to increased fuel consumption in the transportation sector. In addition, the country is still somewhat dependent on crude oil for heat and electricity production.
Meanwhile, the US has significantly increased its oil production in the past 5 years as a result of the discovery of huge deposits of shale oil in the Bakken field in North Dakota, as well as in Oklahoma. Even production in traditional areas of Texas has soared due to the use of new techniques for hydraulic fracturing of deep layers of the earth (the so-called "fracking"). By 2017. The US is expected to become the largest producer in the world, overtaking both Russia and its main partner - Saudi Arabia. In the early 2020s, the US could become a net oil exporter, which will lead to epochal changes in the foreign policy outlook of America.
Geopolitical upheaval
The decreasing dependence on crude oil imports of the United States is changing the geopolitical priorities of the country. The Middle East is gradually losing its importance for the security of supplies for the United States. The Persian Gulf countries in 2011. accounted for only 17% of total imports and 10.2% of the country's consumption. According to preliminary data, the dependence of the United States on Middle Eastern supplies is decreasing in 2012. It is becoming too expensive for America to maintain the military security of the troubled region when it can secure the bulk of its consumption from neighboring countries - Canada and Mexico, which are also among the largest oil producers in the world.
The shift in US geopolitical orientation is clearly visible in the so-called “pivot to Asia,” which has become Obama’s new doctrine. The program involves concentrating troops and strategic partnerships in the Pacific region, where the threat of China’s growing influence terrifies its neighbors, who are among the US’s main military allies, including Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and Australia.
This year, the US will reduce the number of aircraft carriers patrolling the Persian Gulf and transfer some of them to the Pacific. The signal is clear – security in the Middle East is no longer entirely in the hands of the Americans. China will have to adapt to the new situation and strengthen its military presence there. Unlike the US, China relies on Middle Eastern producers for 46% of its oil supplies, mainly Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kuwait and increasingly Iraq. Until now, the US fleet has patrolled the sea lanes in the Indian Ocean and around the Strait of Malacca, which actually put supplies to China at risk in the event of a possible conflict with the US or one of its allies. Now China will be able to take a little breather from this danger, but it will also have to take some responsibility for the security of the sea lanes. It is already doing so to some extent, putting into operation a chain of naval bases in the Indian Ocean, stretching from Port Sudan (near Haiyan) to the island of Taiwan (for reference - Map 1).
Burden distribution or opposition
Liberal theory in international relations teaches us that when two countries have common interests, they manage to cooperate. The reason is that they share the burden of fulfilling a common goal and thus minimize the so-called “transaction costs”. To facilitate cooperation and increase trust, institutions are created that create common mechanisms of action. However, reality shows that such interaction is difficult to achieve, and this applies to China and the United States with full force. On the most difficult issues, including the civil war in Syria, Iran’s nuclear program and tensions in the South China Sea, the two countries are on almost opposite sides.
Who can guarantee that the same will not happen in terms of energy security? Chinese energy interests are already clashing with those of the United States in Iraq, Iran and Central Asia. Chinese companies are planning to invest billions in Iraq's oil reserves. After American companies led by Exxon signed a contract to explore and produce oil in Kurdistan, despite protests from Baghdad, the Iraqi government invited the Chinese giant CNPC to buy Exxon's stake in the giant West Qurna-1 field. The field is strategically key because it will be able to provide direct sea supplies to China via the port of Basra.
Map 1: Chinese military presence in the Indian Ocean – the so-called “string of pearls.”
China also continues to import Iranian oil despite US sanctions and diplomatic threats. In return, in addition to valuable foreign currency, China provides the Islamic Republic with arms and diplomatic support. Together with Russia, the two permanent members of the UN Security Council block attempts to push through a military resolution on Syria. We should not forget that China has invested in the development of oil resources in Angola and Sudan, where the West also has political interests. The launch of an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan and a gas pipeline from Turkmenistan to China, on the other hand, casts doubt on the attempts of Western companies to enter Central Asia.
All this leads to a decrease in US influence in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa. On the other hand, the emergence of the Chinese fleet in the Indian Ocean calls into question the dominance of US naval forces in Eurasia and also directly threatens the security of India, which has traditionally had tense relations with China.
The US still has a strategic advantage in both energy and military terms. However, the focus on Asia could prove to be a double-edged sword for the US, allowing China to quietly expand its influence in a key part of the world. While the future political balance in the Middle East may not directly affect US interests, such a development would threaten the energy security of its allies, among which the European Union remains the most important. It is true that America's fiscal crisis requires huge spending and a rethinking of strategy. But it is not known whether this will not come at the cost of losing its hegemony in the world.
