Rejecting the referendum will bring Trifonov to power

Конституционният Съд отряза половината от референдума на Слави Трифонов и телевизионният водещ още на следващата сутрин за пръв път загатна за влизане в политиката. Както вече писахме преди месец, това беше напълно предвидимо – политическата заявка на Слави минава през политически отрязан или окастрен референдум, а не през успешен или неуспешен такъв.

For better or worse, this was not understood by the ruling coalition even then. After submitting the signatures, GERB openly moved towards rejecting the direct referendum, but Borisov's political instinct stopped them. The Constitutional Court's decision against the referendum, reached with full consensus, however, clearly speaks of a task transferred (by GERB) and accomplished.

As lawyers Petyo Slavov and Kristiyan Takov (neither of whom can be accused of sympathizing with Trifonov) wrote, the constitutionality of the referendum questions is not at all unambiguous. In fact, the Constitutional Court yesterday ruled on the question "Can the National Assembly reduce the number of MPs from 240 to 120?" (which was not asked), and not on the question "Do you support reducing the number of MPs to 120?". Whether the two questions are identical within the framework of the case before the Constitutional Court is not clear. This is also evidenced by the heated discussion between lawyers under the post of Associate Professor Takov.

All these disputes lead us to think that the Constitutional Court's decision is not the result of any crystal clarity on the case, but rather a rushed political decision by the ruling coalition (which appointed the judges).

A political own goal?

And once again we return to the self-confidence of GERB and the ruling coalition that they can somehow play off the referendum and Trifonov's political ambitions. This same self-confidence has already opened the door for Slavi's political project, and in the best possible way for him.

First, by eliminating the referendum, GERB allows Trifonov to frame the ensuing political battle not as GERB against Slavi, but as the status quo (GERB+) against the rights of the people (whose representative is Slavi).

Secondly, this will not be just an empty slogan, but a reality. Thus, the danger of Trifonov turning into a second Barekov is significantly reduced. While Barekov and Slavi Binev had to develop conspiracy theories to make enemies of Borisov and the status quo, Trifonov will simply rely on the facts - the ruling party stopped the referendum.

Third, no politician or party is siding with Slavi and the referendum. Which means that he will be able to present himself as the only and consistent (which is also true) fighter against the political class. This will allow him to make a real attempt to attract non-voting Bulgarians – something that has proven almost impossible over the years.

Or, to put it briefly, it is very difficult to find an argument that would refute the thesis that GERB's blind self-confidence and self-assurance today will bring Slavi Trifonov to power tomorrow.

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