EKIP– Expert Club for Economics and Politics A Different Opinion
In recent days, Bulgarian politicians have, with surprising consensus, declared open war on the invisible enemy Covid-19. Measures that are akin to martial law have been taken and are being taken. Forgotten practices such as curfews, total control over behavior, control over freedom of speech, restrictions disproportionate to the danger, and attacks on private property, etc. are being revived. The expectations are for a short war, but even at the outbreak of the First World War in 1914, the expectations were that everything would end in a few months, and it lasted for several years. The analysis of the current situation assumes at least some knowledge of the accumulated historical experience. Therefore, we will pay attention to some facts about the spread of infectious diseases in Bulgarian lands, about economic and social organization during crises and wars, and finally we will focus on the conclusions drawn from them.
Infectious diseases
Infectious diseases are not something new in both world and Bulgarian history. Information about their spread and influence is limited, but not lacking. Probably the most numerous are the sources about the plague. Its shadow was particularly visible during the period from 1700 to 1850. During 90 of these 150 years, the presence of plague was registered in different parts of the Bulgarian lands. The calculations that have been made about the human victims of the plague are far from our modern idea of accuracy, sometimes they are chaotic, exaggerated or incomplete.
However, there is some concrete data on the consequences of the plague. The doctor Anastasius Georgiadis Levkias wrote that in 1793 and 1795 he experienced two plague epidemics in Plovdiv. The victims of them were approx. 10,000 people. Before the epidemics, the population of the city was about 30,000 people, i.e. approximately one third of the population of Plovdiv fell victim to the plague at the end of the 18th century. In Stara Zagora, during the summer months of 1814, there was a major epidemic, from which 50-60 people died per day, and the total losses are estimated at almost 5,000 people. Before the epidemic, the population of Stara Zagora was approximately 25,000 people. Here the losses reached a quarter of the inhabitants. In 1837, about 200 people died per day from a plague epidemic in Sofia. Tarnovo reported 80 deaths per day in July and August of that year, which is approximately 4,800 people. The population of the city before the epidemic was about 12,000, i.e. the victims were 40% of its inhabitants. Half of the population of Pazardzhik was also among the victims of the epidemic of 1837.
The consequences of the plague epidemics impressed the French economist Jérôme-Adolphe Blanqui, who visited the Bulgarian lands in 1841. A fact that Blanqui noted was that although scientific methods for combating infectious diseases were slowly spreading, the level of hygiene in the cities was extremely low. As a measure to deal with the spread of the plague, quarantines were applied. Sick people were not allowed into the cities, at least officially. The effectiveness of quarantines, however, was questionable. In Blanqui's words: "But since most Turkish cities are open, it is enough to bypass the posts to avoid the imposed formalities. Despite the special control exercised around Constantinople, there is nothing easier than to penetrate the city by land or sea and thus bring the plague in from all sides." By the middle of the 19th century, the plague gradually disappeared from the Bulgarian lands.
Other epidemic diseases, however, remained. Among them, cholera was particularly severe. During the Balkan War (1912-1913), cholera spread from the front into the interior of the country. The data indicate that in 1913, 19,205 patients were registered, of whom 9,548 died. The spread of typhus had serious consequences, with the years 1932, 1934 and 1936 marking a peak. Gradually, data on the spread of various diseases became more and more numerous, and they indicate that devastating epidemics were decreasing. Statistical data from the period between the two world wars show that with the progress of medicine and public health, visible successes were achieved in the fight against infectious diseases.
Wars, speculation and wartime economy
In the 20th century, Bulgaria participated in four wars – the First Balkan War (1912-1913), the Second Balkan War (1913), the First World War (1915-1918) and the Second World War (in hostilities 1944-1945). Participation in the wars was associated with significant economic changes. The Bulgarian economy was still weakly monetized, but for various reasons the prices of all basic goods increased. A few illustrations: in 1912 the average price of an ox was 135.92 leva, and in 1918 it was already 1294.04, during the same period the price of a hen increased from 1.01 leva to 12.14 leva, per liter of wine from 0.64 leva to 6.65 leva. The increase in prices was approximately 10 times. At the same time, wages for various types of labor also increased. Thus, from 1912 to 1918, the wage of a bricklayer increased from 3.60 leva to 18.23 leva, of a mower from 3.08 to 19.33 leva, etc. Prices increased approximately 10 times, and wages increased 6-7 times, which means that the real incomes of people who rely on wages decreased. With their increased wages, they could buy fewer goods. Similar processes can be traced during World War II.
In the conditions of war, Bulgarian politicians took measures to organize the wartime economy. The goal was to ensure the supply of the army and the people in the rear. Their actions were hesitant and not particularly consistent during the First World War and more systematic and strict during the Second World War. They included control over consumption and production, the abolition of market prices and their regulation, the fight against speculation and speculators. Institutions were also created that had extraordinary powers to implement these policies. During the First World War, this was the Directorate for Economic Care and Public Foresight, during the Second – the Directorate for Civil Mobilization and the Supreme Commissariat of the Wartime Economy.
However, Bulgarian historical experience shows that in wartime, no matter what the state authorities do, no matter what laws are passed, no matter how much the so-called "speculators" are punished, socio-economic problems are not solved. The fight against "speculation", no matter how brutal it is, even in the presence of death sentences, does not produce the results expected of it. During the First World War, local authorities issued numerous orders to observe price lists, but they were not implemented. There is abundant data on the so-called black market, on "illegal" profits, on corruption and abuses by the authorities. In general, a rise in prices is a signal of some problem in the economic system, just as an increased body temperature signals the presence of a disease. However, solving the problem with administrative means of combating speculation is like treating the disease that the thermometer signals by putting ice on it.
By the way, it is striking that after the end of the First, but especially after the end of the Second World War, the state never withdrew from its control over economic life.
The lessons
Epidemics have been an invariable part of life for centuries. However, the Bulgarians did not disappear, but survived without relying on dubious saviors. During the years of terrifying, from today's point of view, infectious diseases, the Renaissance began, which led to liberation from Turkish rule. It is important to highlight another trend - the difficult and slow containment of epidemics is a consequence of the gradual spread of market relations. Thanks to the increased market exchange and the gradual opening of the Bulgarian lands, increasingly adequate policies are reaching them and being implemented, which help to calm down widespread diseases. In this sense, the market heals, not economic isolation.
From the perspective of wars, there are at least two important lessons. First, in wartime, no matter what is done, the severe social consequences cannot be eliminated. The poorest usually suffer the most from wars, and this long after the hostilities have ended. Second, Bulgaria is not known for choosing the right allies during war. In both the First and Second World Wars, the country was among the losers, which led to national catastrophes. The winners in the current "war" against Covid-19 seem to be the open market economies of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong. And the hopes that during and after the battle with the virus some know-how will be sought and applied from there are not particularly high, i.e. maybe we are not choosing the right allies again.
