EKIP– Expert Club for Economics and Politics A Different Opinion
Author: Dimitar Pehlivanov
Three main directions can be outlined that have caused the current social crisis, which is about to become political. Despite the fact that in the general perception things seem to merge under concepts such as "governance" and "mafia", the events of recent weeks and months allow us to outline the three main directions in question.
In the first place is undoubtedly the powerful triumvirate Dogan – DPS – Peevski. The successful socio-political action of Hristo Ivanov on the banks of Rosenets Park seemed to unleash the long-standing public discontent about the gradual takeover of the park – a mini-projection of the takeover or, more precisely, the wedging of DPS at all levels in the state. Over the years, DPS has truly become the “sacred cow” (the curse of Bulgaria according to Ivan Kostov) and an “inevitable factor” of Bulgarian politics in such an important and sensitive area as ethnic peace and national security. Gradually and over the years, DPS successfully monopolized, and subsequently sustainably capitalized on this position of its own, until it reached a strongly maintained inertia, a “self-development” that can hardly be turned back.
The political priorities of the MRF, inextricably linked to the aforementioned attributes of national security, garnished with a secure electorate, respectively a permanent "subscription" to the National Assembly, provide the MRF, on the one hand, with political comfort that few other parties can afford, and on the other - immunity from prosecutorial, tax and any other inspections, since with them as a party, as they say popularly, the "game" is at a much higher level. The roots of all this can be traced back to the so-called Revival process in the 70s and 80s, as well as to the "big excursion" in 89 and the overall negative attitude towards Bulgarian Turks in certain periods of the former regime - the creation of the MRF in the cloudy first months of general euphoria and turmoil after the autumn of 1989. are nothing but a reaction to this whole policy, when by tacit political consensus political indulgences were given to the Bulgarian Turks by returning their names and creating a separate party. The legal vacuum before the adoption of the new Constitution in July 1991 also allowed this, since at present the MRF would hardly pass a constitutional “test” in the part for creating parties on an ethnic or religious basis. Ahmed Dogan’s agent past is only an addition, albeit an important one, to the whole picture….
Nevertheless, for about 10 years, the MRF was relatively isolated from the bipolar political life in the 1990s, if we do not count a few episodic “inclusions” as the bearer (rather symbolic) of the mandate with which the government of Lyuben Berov was created or individual, albeit sometimes decisive, votes in Parliament. The real inclusion of the MRF as a (co)-ruling party, however, occurred in 2001, when Simeon II’s party, the NMSV, won the elections with insufficient votes (seats in Parliament) for independent governance and after the failure of consultations for joint governance with the “old right”, the NMSV was forced to attract the MRF as a partner. What followed is clear – the Triple Coalition, etc. until the creation of this political semi-dwarf, but also an economic mastodon or party-corporation with enormous financial and political resources, which is the MRF. Against this background, the things surrounding Rosenets Park even seem innocent….In conclusion, the separation of Bulgarian Turks into a separate party more than 30 years ago is undoubtedly a strategic mistake, the consequences of which we are seeing now. These fellow citizens of ours are a very valuable human resource and they should have political representation, but through Bulgarian parties.
What can be done from here on out? Unfortunately, not much - outlawing the MRF and disbanding it is too radical a move with unpredictable political consequences, the hope remains of limiting its economic power in line with its electoral weight and real presence in society.
The second big problem is the actions of the prosecutor's office in recent months - the latest invasion by 30 armed police officers into the Presidency in terms of style and manner of execution is truly reminiscent of completely different times. The advisor and secretary of the President accused by the prosecutor's office are certainly well-mannered, educated, and public-spirited people who would hardly refuse a summons from the authorities for questioning; in a last resort, the search could have been carried out with much less noise and ostentation. But it's not just that - in recent months, people have been arrested for expressing their opinions and have been imposed insane monetary guarantees, such as the action against the chairman of the Pharmaceutical Union, Prof. Asena Stoimenova, a respected expert, for whose release the entire sector has not coincidentally advocated.
Another insane accusation, in which the prosecution expectedly crashed in court, was the one against Prokopiev, Traykov and Dyankov, assessed by many experts as legal ignorance. Businessman Plamen Bobokov was arrested once again, also with insane accusations of discussing facts that have long been known to the public and the media, especially after it was established by the court that he had in no way obstructed the investigation against him. This is a topic for a separate conversation, but it can be described as a blow against working Bulgarian business, investing in higher added value. Many other examples can be listed, but it is clear that, popularly speaking, the prosecution "took itself too seriously", which was enough to unleash such discontent. In recent days, several opinions of lawyers from across the country have also become clear, including legal groups, who are demanding changes in the policy pursued by the prosecution or directly for the resignation of the Prosecutor General.
The possibilities here are also not many - it is unlikely that the prosecutor's office will arbitrarily change its policy, but constant public pressure, including from the professional community, is one way to mitigate things in the future.
The third problem is relatively the smallest, but also the only one that entirely depends on the Government. He is highly personalized and his name is Danail Kirilov – this man has a catastrophic public image! Not just bad or low – catastrophic! For the last 20 years or more, it is hardly possible to find a politician, MP or minister who has such a bad public image, who is so unloved, hated and ridiculed. His similarities to a cartoon character are the least of his problems, the real problems are completely different, well-known and it is hardly the place to dwell on them here. More important is the result – Kirilov contributes the most to the low rating and image problems of the Government.
What can and/or should be done from now on? The immediate resignation of the Government is a purely emotional demand, but few people actually realize what can follow after that. Most of the protesters are hardly aware that the resignation of the Government can hardly affect the position of the MRF in society, nor can it overthrow the Prosecutor General. The time is not suitable for organizing an election campaign, let alone elections. In addition, two months is too short a time to organize and present a new political project on the political scene. Regular elections will be held in 7-8 months anyway, which is enough time for a suitable alternative to emerge.
The announced resignations of the three ministers and (certainly) the expected ones to follow, together with the decision to overcome the vote of confidence, in addition to the threat of an economic and medical crisis, speak mostly of the fact that radical solutions are being avoided and those are being sought that will allow the coalition to "get by" until the regular elections next spring. At the same time, time will be sought to gain and ways to weaken the protests, either through fatigue, or by discrediting the individuals who embody it, or in some other way. If the cabinet does not fall in the meantime, a "stagnation" until the elections is outlined, garnished with personnel changes and maximum capitalization of partial successes (the Eurozone waiting room), but not with qualitative deep changes in policies, for which there will be neither time nor desire.
And the latter is precisely the big problem of this Government - the many and aggressive moves towards nationalizing various businesses or creating state-owned ones (nationalizing the lottery, the water and sewerage company, the state-owned oil company...) are a clear sign that it is time for change. Let's hope that the elections will be able to bring it.
