EKIP– Expert Club for Economics and Politics A Different Opinion
GERB is swallowing PP-DB like a boa constrictor – bite by bite – Kostadin Kostadinov flowerily expressed himself during the unfortunate negotiations for the rotation of the assembly. Pointing us to a half-forgotten trope from the coalition past of Boris’s party that states that whoever governs with GERB remains a historical footnote – Reformist Bloc, ABV, VMRO, NFSB, etc.
I have personally witnessed Borisov (by proxy) implementing the famous strategic refrain of Franz Josef Strauss, leader of the CSU - the Bavarian sister party to Merkel's Christian Democrats. Strauss' wisdom goes as follows - "there should be no legitimate political party to the right of the CSU". Accordingly, everyone on the right should either be absorbed, disbanded, or, in the extreme case, isolated as a marginal. By coincidence, it was the CSU's political foundation - the Hans Seidel Stiftung - that structurally built Borisov's formation 20 years ago.
In the carefree early days of the political realignment (around 2016 with Trump and Brexit), the native grassroots right-wing scene was filled with young hopes in the conservative-libertarian spectrum, with rapidly developing organizations, with a galaxy of meme pages and a number of other signs of vitality. Almost all of this was killed by a special political operation by GERB, successful due to the low level of political culture in these/our circles, and also due to the general poor quality of the material. [1] Strauss' principle was preserved, nothing was allowed to flourish to the right.
The absorption of the PPDB, however, has an additional moment of emphasized importance, beyond the Hanseatic League. It is connected with the major processes of the ongoing Perestroika. It is obvious that the new political spectrum I proposed is in the process of materializing in our country as well – we have a new axis with extreme anti-globalists on the far right (Vazrazhdane), moderate anti-globalists (ITN and BSP, a possible party of the president), moderate globalists (DPS and GERB) and on the far left - extreme globalists (PPDB). Let us leave aside the anti-globalists, only emphasizing that Vazrazhdane is the first party that GERB (for now) is releasing from its right [2], and let us focus on the globalist or known in our country as the “Euro-Atlantic” sector of the new spectrum.
Knowledge of the political culture (and soil, according to Ganev) of the Bulgarian voter leads us to the conclusion that in our country the moderate parties on both sides of the center will be electorally significant, they will have a serious chance to govern. After the start of the war in Ukraine, it is especially attractive to be positioned as the moderate Euro-Atlantic party, carrying out the will of the Embassy. It is precisely this territory of the rearranged political spectrum that Borisov wants, there you take a picture with Zelensky or whatever is the current thing for the period – give injections, introduce the ECB shitcoin, etc.
The problem is that for the moment, due to the aforementioned attractiveness, the Euro-Atlantic sector is too crowded – 26% for GERB, 24% for PPDB, almost 14% for MRF (in the last parliamentary elections) – and these are only the explicit cosmopolitan-globalists, ITN and BSP continue to have one foot in the same puddle. The second reason for the excess of Euro-Atlanticism is that the last parliamentary elections were also the last for the old division, specifically in its 2020 form - ideological convergence of the parties on all major issues [3], but a struggle along the lines of who is good and who is mafiqta. Full agreement on how and where to govern, the discord is for the captain's seat. Some of us still remember up to a whole year ago, we remember that PPDB came to power to expel Borisov and Peevski.
The formation of the assembly was the bell announcing a major step forward in the course of the Reorganization – the creation of the first government along the new dividing line, in absolute contrast to the sharp conflict that existed until a week ago. A sharp turn made very little impression on the commentators, but fundamental in its essence. An event that occurs once in several decades, suggesting that the anomaly of at least 65% Euro-Atlantic parties in the National Assembly cannot be sustained – everyone in this sector must take out their long knives and cut until they together fit into the real dimensions of the new left – somewhere around 50 percent.
The first and easiest victim is the PPDB and the experienced predator Borisov is already tearing at living flesh. At the same time, the other dangerous player in the person of Peevski is simultaneously pressuring the overstepped promenaders, but also warning Borisov that the MRF may take advantage of Kiril Petkov. These processes will continue, including in the event of a new assembly after the elections. The result will be one – some version of Stoyan Panchev’s political spectrum, sized according to the requirements of the new division. We are still at the beginning of April, and the attacks against the PPDB are already at high speed – dogs with tufts, a European warrant against Nastimir Ananiev, accusations of extortion against Bozhidar Bozanov. There are 15 percentage points to be taken down.
While regular processes are raging in the Euro-Atlantic sector, a lull before the storm has hung over the national-localists. It seems that Vazrazhdane is slowly moving into the normalization phase (according to Davis) through the expected candidacy of Petar Volgin for MEP. The poor remnants of VMRO are trying to rebrand through Kuzman Iliev and possibly include the schizo substratum through "Colonel" Markov. However, the territory of moderate anti-globalism sits completely empty, sociologists tell us, and loaded with great electoral potential. The BSP is incapable, and the ITN does not want to fill it, we are waiting for the president's move. Will he leave his post to lead a new party and realize the next step in the political rearrangement?
Watching the president, in terms of rhetoric, staffing, and private actions, I am convinced that without a radical change, he will find himself in the same situation as the Conservatives with Rishi Sunak in the UK. [4] Elected to do one thing, but actually doing something completely different. Once in power, he will lurch toward Euro-Atlanticism, which will cost him his political longevity.
The new right is facing a long-term process of cleansing itself of impurities and sediments. An expected part of the Re-cutting process.
[1] Two of my essays are a reaction to these events and an attempt at philosophical counteraction: Principles Are Not Pasta and Cohesionary Mutro-Progressivism.
[2] Probably because it doesn't even recognize that it is a right-wing party. Although, we recently saw certain events in the SOS and the situation with the three breakaway MPs, i.e. they realized it.
[3] One of the characteristics of the depleting political order and the impending rearrangement.
[4] For example, the hidden work of Radev's caretaker governments against the lev and the currency board and in favor of the euro.
