EKIP– Expert Club for Economics and Politics A Different Opinion
Less than a week before the elections, the fact that for the first time in the history of Bulgarian parliamentarism the Turkish minority will be represented by two different political formations seems to be underestimated. The topic of ethnic parties and analyzing politics through this prism are taboo due to the legal discrepancies between theory and practice in the case.
However, in the 2011 census, 588,318 people identified themselves as Turks, and 605,802 people indicated Turkish as their mother tongue. This necessitates the need to pay special attention to the processes in this type of political representation.
In addition to the MRF, Kasim Dal's party also appeared on the scene in the 2013 elections in coalition with the NMSV - Center "Freedom and Dignity".
The difficulty in making predictions comes from the fact that so far Dahl's party has only participated in local elections, and the "blow" that was dealt to the MRF was not serious enough to come into the field of view of many experts - the MRF lost its position in a number of small towns (Silistra region), but even in several of these cases this happened at the expense of more serious trust voted for GERB.
In order to analyze the chances of dividing the votes between the two parties, which address their messages to the same electorate, it is necessary to pay attention to how the division in question occurred within the DPS - "from above" or "from below".
As a rule, the Movement's electorate is homogeneous. There are no divisions or serious conflicts in it – it is no secret that support for the party comes from the Turkish minority. It cannot be said that Kasim Dal emerged as the leader of a social group in some natural process. The change came after a rearrangement of the top of the party hierarchy – Kasim Dal is the man who was called "the heart and memory of the MRF" for a long time, and then was expelled from the party. This makes the outcome of this year's elections even more curious.
Dal's breakaway put him in a situation where he was not presented by his supporters as a new leader with already guaranteed support from the social base. He must single-handedly mobilize, convince of his abilities, tear his potential electorate away from the MRF status quo, and bid for its trust – a rather bold task, considering the history and mythological inextricable connection between Dogan and the voters.
A very important detail that will certainly have an effect on the division of votes between the two parties are the sections located abroad – 85 election centers will be opened in Turkey this year, over 100,000 Bulgarians with Turkish citizenship are expected to cast their votes. These voters naturally fall under another type of political influence: representatives of the ruling party in Turkey, quoted in the press, welcome the new “pluralism” in the representation of the Turkish minority in the elections as good news. Moreover, the negative tone in the assessment of the work of the MRF by a deputy from the ruling group is also obvious:
"More than 20 years ago, Bulgaria decided to adopt a multi-party system, and since then the Turkish minority in Bulgaria has been represented by a single political party.
"But this party has not shown a policy that can satisfy the needs of the Turkish minority in Bulgaria, nor has it taken steps to improve official and people-to-people relations between Turkey and Bulgaria. I hope that the creation of another party will make a positive contribution in this regard."
In addition to the obvious support demonstrated by the Turkish authorities, Kasim Dal's party seems to have set itself the goal of winning another trump card - its determination to compete in the elections as a coalition partner will most likely make the movement more attractive and open to voters outside the Turkish minority.
Freedom and Dignity engaged in lengthy negotiations with the UDF before finally reaching an agreement for an electoral coalition with the NMSV. In the 2009 parliamentary race, the NMSV managed to win 3% of the vote.
Before starting the campaign this year, Kasim Dahl had long maintained the following position regarding his possible political cooperation with the yellows – he refused to consider such a partnership because “there are still people from previous governments in the NMSV.” Although containing an unfulfilled threat, such a statement is an indicator of Dahl’s unwillingness to associate himself with the past – the NMSV was a coalition partner of the MRF in the previous government.
The assessments of the sociological agencies regarding the dynamics of support for the MRF are also curious:
January 2013 – 5.4%
March – 4.8%
Their analysis should also take into account the change in public attitudes after the assassination attempt on Ahmed Dogan – such events should activate a sense of empathy among the electorate and mobilize the party's supporters. However, trust in the MRF is declining, according to Alpha Research.
A "black spot" for the MRF was also the scandal after an activist of Kasim Dal's party was beaten while putting up posters in one of the municipalities - strongholds of the MRF.
The ideological unburdening of the formation may also be an advantage. The concept of "center" was singled out as the coalition's slogan - both in the sense of complete neutrality and refusal to identify with camps on both the left and the right, and the philanthropic election platform stating that "the center of politics is the person."
However, Kasim Dahl's visionary approach, aside from his current partnership, raises doubts and hesitations – it should not be forgotten that during the creation of his party he insisted that "it is not an ethnic party, but a party of those with different affiliations". However, such ambiguity is probably typical of the chaos of ethnic representation, regulated even in the Constitution itself, according to which:
Art. 11. (4) Political parties may not be formed on an ethnic, racial or religious basis....
