Look at Donald Trump, think of Slavi Trifonov

Voter anger

A huge part of voters around the world are angry. Some are angry at their politicians because they lied to them about the way out of the crisis – supposedly it is over and the problems are solved, while neither salaries are rising nor jobs are being created. Others are angry at the weakness of their countries in dealing with the migration crisis – if a German beats up a German in the square in Cologne, he will go to jail, but if an immigrant from Pakistan does the same, they will not even detain him (or at least that is how it seems to many German voters). Still others can no longer tolerate the hypocrisy of their politicians – the partisan Dilma Rousseff is reducing inequality in Brazil by stealing billions from the construction of the Olympic stadiums in Rio, and Hillary Clinton will severely punish American banks, but at the same time Wall Street will donate somewhere around $1 billion to her campaign.

The average voter may not have the answers to many of the problems mentioned above, but he certainly knows and feels that he is being lied to. And that makes him angry and angry. Very angry and very angry. Because, as Abraham Lincoln once said:

" You can fool all the people some of the time. You can fool some of the people all the time. But you can't fool all the people all the time."

The Angry Outsiders

And when people are angry, it is inevitable that an angry politician will appear to channel that anger into electoral success and political action. Ironically, the professors behind the so-called Manifesto for the Republic* unintentionally came out right – there really is no left and no right now, but that is only when it comes to political PR. Today, political campaigns are divided on a different principle – boring status quo and angry outsiders.

For example, in the US, the angry outsiders are Cruz, Sanders and Trump, with the latter having a real chance of being elected President. In Bulgaria, 5-6 years ago, the angry outsider was called Boyko Borisov – the alpha male who appeared from nowhere and had the courage to break the established status quo of the Triple Coalition. For better or worse, however, GERB in its second term has largely also become part of the status quo – the party cannot boast of any revolutionary reform and change in the state, and talk of stability and European approval is typical rhetoric of the boring and disappointing establishment in the EU. Therefore, it was only a matter of time before the new angry outsider – Slavi Trifonov – appeared in Bulgaria.

The hewn stone falls into place at the right time

To be honest, there is almost no logical argument today why the angry outsider Slavi Trifonov should not be at least a third political force, even retaining the chances of winning the next elections and de facto destroying GERB**. The showman has what it takes to be a successful politician:

1. Brilliant oratorical qualities, combining the vernacular and categorical nature of Borisov's speech with the much more expressive passion of politicians like Tsipras.
2. A personal (albeit imperfect) life open to the public, which immunizes him against compromising material – the tabloid press has written everything possible about Trifonov for the last 20 years. The voter will not be impressed if it is written once again that he is gay, that he has typhus, that he is a scoundrel, or something similar.
3. A strong PR instinct that rivals Borisov's unique talent. The difference is that while the current Prime Minister has innate qualities and natural charisma, Trifonov has cultivated this quality through his profession. Evidence of this is the masterful way*** in which he dealt with the attack and accusation of PIK that he is gay (unlike Radan Kanev's failure in the same).
4. A simple statement that resonates equally well with the left and right-wing electorate – as we said, today the successful move for politicians is to channel the anger and disappointment of voters, and not necessarily divide them into left and right. Like Donald Trump in the US, Trifonov states and argues relatively well why he himself is right-wing, but at the same time uses typically left-wing statements and arguments.
5. Aggressive macho behavior, bordering on authoritarianism. This can be summarized briefly with the concept of "alpha male". And as we know, only an alpha male can defeat another alpha male, which is Borisov.

Anger, frustration and fear will cast ballots

That is, on the one hand, we have disappointed and angry voters who see in the Parliament an overwhelming majority of ruling 240 MPs without opposition, constantly playing with their European (pseudo)legitimacy, while the EU itself seems incapable and weak to respond to the most direct threat - refugees and Islamism.

On the other hand, we have a disappointed and angry future politician in the person of Slavi Trifonov, who has been building an image of a patriot and nationalist with a firm hand for over two decades, and who is the only categorical, clear, consistent and noisy opposition to Prime Minister Borissov.

So, is it really that hard to guess who a huge portion of voters will vote for in the next elections? Even if they don't particularly like Trifonov himself, hundreds of thousands of voters will cast their ballots for him, driven by their shared disappointment and anger towards the ruling party and fear of the external Islamic threat.

Look at Donald Trump, think of Slavi Trifonov

Almost a year ago, Donald Trump announced his candidacy for President of the United States. At that time, the billionaire from New York had the support of only 3% of voters and political analysts were adamant that it would not increase – Trump has a scandalous personal life, has often changed his positions on important issues for American voters such as the legality of abortion and the healthcare system, has supported campaigns of both right-wing and left-wing politicians, has no experience in foreign policy, etc. But all these arguments turned out to be invalid, because they missed the most important thing – voters in the United States are angry and furious, and Trump is angry and furious too. Many of the people with the ballots simply do not care what Trump thinks on hundreds of different political topics, they just want him to channel their anger towards Washington. That is why the same person today has 50% of the Republican vote and about 25% of the vote of all voters.

A few months ago, Slavi Trifonov stood at the same 3-4% in Bulgaria and without having announced any candidacy. The attempts of the authorities to repress the holding of the referendum and the hopes of political scientists and politicians that the voters will not agree with the positions in the referendum itself (which logically should also be a party platform) or will not like the showman's personality itself will only produce the opposite effect and an unpleasant surprise for them. As in most places in the world, in Bulgaria there is again a serious number of angry voters whose only demand is for someone equally angry to "fuck" him in power. This angry person in the next parliamentary elections will most likely be Slavi Trifonov.

*The conclusion concerns only the relevance of left and right in political campaigns today. The article does not support the claim in the Manifesto that the left-right political dichotomy is not relevant to successful governance.

**A large part of the current vote for GERB is due to the conformism among voters to always support the winning party. Attracting voters through promises to tackle corruption, crush the MRF, etc. is already very difficult after Borisov's second "consensus" mandate.

***Ridicule is the right PR way to deal with such accusations of homosexuality or other attacks on the personality, as it absurdizes the attack. One of the famous good examples in this direction is described in Isaac Asimov's "Foundation", when the undercover android Daniel Olivo answers the question of whether he is an android only with a smile and sincere laughter.

****The article does not express support for any of the politicians or parties mentioned in it.

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