Bulgaria's future may depend on Brexit

"The European Union draws inspiration from the plant kingdom. In its negotiating strategy, the EU follows the example of the Venus flytrap, a flower that uses nectar to lure its victims inside - without them ever being able to get out again."

Sir Christopher Chope, Member of the House of Commons

The most important political events for the future of the United Kingdom and the European Union are underway in the United Kingdom. After two years of negotiations, Prime Minister Theresa May returned to London with a treaty that will settle the future relationship between the Island and the Continent after March 29, 2019, when the country will automatically, under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union (successor to the Lisbon Treaty), leave the EU. Instead of a triumphal arch, however, May was greeted with a rebellion from her own people and a political crisis unseen in generations.

May's deal – a nightmare for Britain

The situation with May’s deal was already festering in Brussels, where the other member states managed to accept it in just 38 minutes. Once the text was in the hands of the Brexiteers, it quickly became clear that thanks to the so-called “brake” (related to the Northern Ireland issue) Britain could find itself in an indefinite customs union with the EU, without the right to apply its trade agreements with the rest of the world. And as an addition, under the auspices of the Court of Justice of the European Union, it must pay a 39 billion British pound ransom. Even worse, once it has signed the agreement, the United Kingdom cannot unilaterally leave it – for that it must obtain the EU’s permission.

Hence the comparison made by Sir Chope to his colleagues in the English Parliament. In practice, when concluding the proposed agreement, we will see an even greater transfer of sovereignty to Brussels than the initial membership in the Union represents. At least it has Article 50, which allows for unilateral withdrawal - in the treaty proposed by the British there is no such possibility. Under such circumstances, the situation in Westminster and throughout the country is not surprising.

The political situation is heated to the limit

And it is on a hive of political axes. The expectations are that next Tuesday, December 11, the House of Commons will reject the deal brought by the prime minister – with the votes of the opposition, the ruling coalition partner of the Northern Ireland Unionist Party, as well as those of the two opposing wings in May's party - for and against Brexit. Currently, five days of debates in parliament, public campaigns, attempts to find votes, renegotiations between the players in the country and even talk of postponing the vote.

The fear is clear and understandable. Uncertainty lurks in the post-vote period for all political players. If the deal is rejected, a variety of options are on the table – May’s resignation, new elections, a caretaker government, a second referendum. As British historian Stephen Davis has predicted for several years, the situation could catalyze a reconfiguration of the entire party system in the country – because both major parties are currently divided down the middle into pro- and anti-Brexit camps. As well as on fundamental issues related to the identity and vision for the future that the United Kingdom may have. A historic time has come for Britain.

The British have set out on a path outside the European Union, and it is entirely possible that they will make their mark in the murky waters – to break away from continental Europe’s tendency towards centralization, heavy regulation and low growth. To open up to global trade, to maintain that with the EU and to unclog their economy towards more productivity and innovation. But what remains for us, who will be part of the Berlin-Brussels-Paris axis, at least for the foreseeable future?

What is the future of the EU?

First of all, five scenarios for the future of the EU were lowered from the high gate of Brussels, of which the Commission quickly, without much discussion and deliberation, pointed out to all Europeans the “correct” one. Namely, the one that speaks of ever stronger federalization (centralization), ever less sovereignty left to individual states, and the creation of common financial, administrative, and even military structures. In a word – a new state.

This was demonstrated by the recently proposed separate budget for the Eurozone – understand, you all have to adopt the common currency – the Euro with its unresolved fundamental problems (against which we have repeatedly written HERE, HERE and HERE ). Talks are actively underway about a common health ministry, a supranational treasury, etc. While at the same time, the creation of new (completely unnecessary and harmful) regulations and rules such as the absurdly frightening GDPR, the “green” pruning of the industry, the new transport rules that harm the interests of Bulgarian carriers, etc.

From a liberal union to a statist federation

With the possible exit of the UK, the main counterweight against the siphoning off of sovereignty to the political-bureaucratic-lobbying center has been removed. The fervor with which work is being done towards a faster transition to a federal entity is already visible. This is most clearly seen precisely in the attitude towards Brexit – the Union is more than obviously not that classically liberal project for trade, travel and twinning of post-war Europe. These three do not need a gigantic political center, such as is currently being created. Associations with another union that could not be left are starting to not seem so far-fetched.

The development of events also poses serious questions for us in Bulgaria. In a situation where we are neither moving forward nor backward. How will an economy like ours, which needs dynamism, grow in an increasingly statist and tired European Federation? How quickly will the processes of disintegration of the four freedoms, the beginnings of which we are already seeing, develop? In addition to stagnation, can the EU also bring chaos – for example, with the collapse of the Eurozone?

Is there a future outside the EU?

At the same time, what place do we have outside the EU, where domestic (Turkey) and externally organized (Montenegro) coups are taking place in our neighborhood, and warships are gathering at the other end of the Black Sea? What would we stumble towards outside the gravitational pull of Brussels? Which is more dangerous for our sovereignty and independence – Western bureaucracy or Eastern imperialism? Regardless of our choice, we lose. At least at this stage.

This is where the role of the bold Albion experiment comes in. A successful Brexit will provide a third chance, will present a competing vision. Or at least it will suggest a path different from the currently possible ones. If by then the EU does not develop a practice of sending troops to the separatists, of course…

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