EKIP– Expert Club for Economics and Politics A Different Opinion
Among politicians, the instinct for self-preservation is particularly acute. In Bulgaria, this rule applies with double force, and the leading figures in our country recognize the danger from afar. Boyko Borisov and Sergey Stanishev are no exception. Their timid attempts at rapprochement last week showed that both are under great pressure, and the parties they lead are treading on quicksand.
The search for a compromise agreement between GERB and BSP is not due to a sudden display of political responsibility in the face of an institutional crisis, but rather to an attempt to preserve their political influence. The latter seems impossible if they do not stand together against the blows being showered upon them from all directions.
B.B.'s notebook
The revealed notebook of the now former head of the commission for the prevention of conflict of interest, Filip Zlatanov, did not tell us anything that we did not already suspect. Another piece of evidence has come to light that during the GERB government, Prime Minister Borisov relied on Iskra Fidosova and Tsvetan Tsvetanov to work in tandem to neutralize internal and external political opponents. While Tsvetanov ensured that certain economic groups were protected through the protection of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the powerful structure, GDBOP, the one now better known as I.F. pulled the strings of the internal party organizations and exerted pressure on senior magistrates with the help of “independent” institutions.
When you are not in power, however, these tactics turn against you. In the last five months, the prosecutor's office, which Boyko Borisov "self-elected", has started an open war against GERB and mainly against Tsvetanov. The spectacles that the top prosecutors have been putting on recently have strangely coincided with the turning of the circle of Tsvetan Vassilev and Delyan Peevski against the previous rulers. The campaign is already yielding results, as GERB is gradually starting to lose its monolithic structure. The split in the party is currently visible only at the regional level, but Fidosova's resignation will make it difficult to maintain party discipline. Her removal was a necessary fuse to stop a chain reaction that would divide the party, but the consequences of the notebook scandal will still undermine GERB's foundations.
GERB cannot afford to stay out of parliament for long because of the resentment of party members who had hoped that they too would get a piece of the pie with power. Therefore, it is key for Boyko Borisov to find a compromise option for returning his party to parliament. The main risk is that such a move would disappoint GERB supporters, who for four years were convinced of the "evils" of the triple coalition. The return of the parliamentary group is a tacit agreement with the status quo. Therefore, GERB will find itself in the position of the BSP, DPS and ATAKA under the reach of street discontent. In this way, Borisov's falling rating will collapse completely, and a possible government after early elections will remain only a utopia.
Stanishev on a fragile branch
Mr. Stanishev is very uncomfortable, but he must admit that his party and he in particular also need the support of GERB. The protests have been putting pressure on the government for more than a month, despite its stubborn desire to ignore them. This is not the first time Plamen Oresharski has faced mass protests. Let us recall the teachers' strike, which the triple coalition successfully opposed. Back then, however, the economy was booming, unemployment was at record lows, and people felt they were getting rich. Things are much different now. More than 4 years of economic crisis, political stagnation, and the collapse of dreams that someone in public life has concrete ideas on how to lay the foundations for getting out of the political and social crisis have made those Bulgarians who wish to develop in their homeland desperate.
As long as GERB is not in the National Assembly, the ruling coalition cannot achieve legitimacy. The BSP realizes that with GERB in opposition in parliament, all legislative decisions will depend even more on the support of ATAKA. The horror of relying entirely on Volen Siderov's party stops the BSP from apparently seeking GERB's support, but it is not clear how long the coalition will withstand public pressure. The goal is to survive until May next year, when the BSP will be more ready for a new election battle. Until then, the government will hope that the prosecutor's office will continue the pressure on GERB, so that even if it does not lead to convictions, the main figures will be discredited in the eyes of the voters. A possible split will help this process, but it is not yet clear to what extent Boyko Borisov has influence over his regional leaders.
To remain leader of the BSP, on the other hand, Stanishev needs to show that he has enough political will to be independent of the economic groups around the Oresharski cabinet. This cannot happen if the government does not oppose the appointments launched by the MRF. Last week showed that this trend has no prospect of changing. A broad coalition between the two leading parties will create a sense of legitimacy among a part of the protesters. At the same time, Stanishev will strengthen his position in parliament, where he will receive at least some support from GERB. The BSP leader is under enormous pressure from the internal factions of Rumen Petkov and even more so from Georgi Parvanov. It is no secret that the former president was on good terms with Boyko Borisov. Attracting the latter to Stanishev's side will provide him with some protection.
New dangers on the horizon
So it would not be surprising if we see Borisov and Stanishev agree, even if they do so with a pinched nose. The alternative would be to risk their personal political influence, undermine the foundations of their parties, and also allow the emergence of new political entities. Whether it will be the reformist bloc on the right, Tatyana Doncheva's project, or some other alliance, it is increasingly clear that the vacuum in the political space will soon be filled.
Boyko Borisov, who has the best chance of seeking the support of the new right-wing coalition, however, made a number of strategic mistakes and managed to alienate it. The BSP, on the other hand, sees the reformist bloc as an obstacle to the creation of a new coalition cabinet. The right-wing coalition has the potential to replace ATAKA as a kind of "kingmaker", but one that, unlike Volen Siderov's party, will be much more difficult to manipulate.
