EKIP– Expert Club for Economics and Politics A Different Opinion
The nomination of Antoaneta Stefanova gave everyone the opportunity to practice their chess clichés – from “Zungzwang” to “Sicilian Defense”. However, that is not what matters. The more important part of the statement by Slavi Trifonov, chairman of “There is Such a People”, was that the second term would be returned. In this way, it practically put an end to speculation about whether there would be a regular cabinet, for a short or long time.
The reactions were puzzling, to say the least. It seems that the most disappointed by the news were from the first political force, GERB, which has already failed in its attempts to form a government. The BSP, whose result collapsed on April 4, also seems unhappy. In short, all of this is illogical. In even shorter terms, Trifonov seems to have made the right choice. A few reasons why:
Guilty in any case. Trifonov decided to get out of the situation he found himself in – to have support from everyone, but it was an obvious trap, at least as far as the three “toxic” parties – GERB, BSP and MRF are concerned. Boyko Borisov stated that “Todor Zhivkov did not have such support either” and, although as he usually lies, such support is completely illogical. In practice, Trifonov has just over 90 votes in total. They are not enough to pass laws and every vote is dependent on GERB, BSP and MRF – as is evident from the changes in the Electoral Code.
Trifonov would be guilty whether he formed a government or not. He chose the latter in the hope that the results would be better next time. He may be wrong, but he may be right – either way, his decision is completely in order.
The move is logical, given that “There is such a people” has become the most important party in Bulgarian politics. Although he did not formulate it as briefly and clearly as it should be from a communication point of view, he asked voters for a higher vote of confidence. Going from election to election is not a drama and in fact it is strange that it is happening for the first time in 30 years. What is more – the so-called “elections to the hole” can have a cleansing effect for both the parties and the administration, which will be convinced that the world does not end with Borisov’s departure from power.
Trifonov can consolidate even more votes around himself. If until now “There is such a people” was simply “Slavi and the screenwriters”, in just a month it managed to bring at least a few more people to the forefront – Mika Zaikova, Iva Miteva and to some extent Antoaneta Stefanova, who will not be considered only as a candidate for deputy, but also as a candidate for prime minister. Moreover, the party really seems to have experts and people who do not look out of place in parliament.
GERB, BSP and MRF clearly do not want elections. The logical question is why. The answer from GERB is clear – Boyko Borisov and Tomislav Donchev are afraid of a caretaker government of Rumen Radev. At the same time, however, Borisov spent the last month in constant insults and attacks against Trifonov and “Democratic Bulgaria”, while urging them to form a government. The BSP, on the other hand, seemed to want to use the time to take stock of why it lost 400 thousand votes, but there will be none.
GERB and BSP are in decline. They know this from “There is such a people”. GERB is in personnel chaos, Boyko Borisov has never looked more vulnerable, the BSP is in structural and identity collapse. Against this background, the silence of “There is such a people” turns out to be more than a good strategy. At the same time, there is also a chance for a better result for “Democratic Bulgaria”, which also gained positives from the short life of the parliament (and did not even split). The question here is “Stand up! You bastards out”, for whom it is not clear whether they will enter the next parliament, nor will they even appear again in this configuration.
The burden of the crisis can be borne by a caretaker government. It makes little sense for a newly emerged party to shoulder the responsibility for an economic crisis, which is happening anyway for health reasons, not management reasons – especially when it can be borne by an adequate caretaker government. This argument may sound cynical, but it is true. If “football is a game of goals”, then electoral democracy is a “game of votes”.
The strategy of “There is such a people” is working. The party is silent and yet receives tons of media attention. Boyko Borisov, who records every second of his life on Facebook, talks more about his opponents than about his own party. At the same time, if we exclude some “krum laws”, real blunders were almost absent, partly precisely because of the silence.
This time, a real campaign. New elections would give “There Is Such a People” the opportunity to campaign the way it should have happened in the first elections – with several concerts in the country’s major cities, something that no one else can do. Given the good weather and the much better epidemic situation – Trifonov and company will be able to do exactly the campaign that was expected anyway.
Of course, some clarifications are needed. A main fear among voters of "There is Such a People" and "Democratic Bulgaria" is that their result of April 4 may not be repeated, a coalition between VMRO, NFSB, VOLIA and other parties may enter and the path to a new Borisov cabinet may open.
The fears are justified, but only to a certain extent. Trifonov is practically stealing votes directly from these parties. A lower voter turnout could be a plus for Democratic Bulgaria, and the possibility of GERB, with all its possible coalition partners, reaching even 100 votes seems minimal.
As for the good result of April 4 for the “protest parties” - yes, they certainly exceeded expectations. But a good result is not enough. As the votes in the National Assembly on the truly important issues showed, GERB, BSP and MRF can and will block anything that does not suit them - while pro forma supporting a “government of change”. And for such to happen, 120 votes are needed. Trifonov and his team are aware of this.
PP: By the way, we told you.
