The Israeli Nightmare

What should you do if you are surrounded by enemies ready to tear you apart? The theory of deterrence, and indeed the logic of street fighting, dictates that you should take action that clearly demonstrates that you are prepared to do anything to defend yourself. Simply put, you should make it clear that you are ready. Israel has been doing just that for the past 72 hours.

What should you do if you are surrounded by enemies ready to tear you apart? The theory of deterrence, and the logic of street fighting, dictates that you must take action that clearly shows that you are prepared to do anything to defend yourself. Simply put, you must make it clear that you are prepared. Israel has been doing just that for the past 72 hours. Tanks and military equipment have been massed near the border with the Gaza Strip in response to the barrage of rockets that have been raining down on Israeli cities for the past week. To make it clear that this is not just a preventive measure, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu said that Israel is prepared to do anything to stop attacks on Israeli citizens. The statement came a day after a rocket fired from Gaza hit a residential neighborhood, killing three people, in response to an Israeli military strike that killed Hamas’s military leader, Ahmad Jabari.

Israel’s actions, however, could easily spiral out of control if we add to the picture Egyptian support for Hamas, instability on the Syrian border, and the intention of the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, to advocate for Palestine to receive observer status at the UN. Let’s start with the Hamas-Egypt relationship. With the rise to power of the moderate Islamist government of Mohamed Morsi in Egypt, the country changed its foreign policy course. Relations with Iran improved sharply, the border with Gaza was opened, and the Camp David peace agreement between Israel and Egypt was put up for review. The opening of the Gaza border led to a renewal of arms trafficking and the passage of terrorists through the Sinai Desert. Israel tried to stop the dangerous flow of people and weapons by launching isolated military operations on Egyptian territory, somewhat incurring Morsi’s just wrath. Not only did Egypt not close its borders to Gaza again, but it even increased its military presence in the Sinai Peninsula.

Nerves are also frayed along Israel’s northern border, where stray shells from the Syrian civil war have caused panic in Israeli towns in the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in 1967 and 1973. Israel has returned fire, heightening concerns that the Syrian conflict could take on regional proportions. While Israel has no intention of interfering in its northern neighbor, the hawkish government of Netanyahu, Barak and Lieberman is terrified of the possibility of extremists seizing power in Damascus. Like Bismarck’s nightmare of Germany being surrounded by enemies on all sides, Israel is feeling increasingly claustrophobic in the region.

Last but not least, the West Bank, as the Palestinian Authority is known, has fallen into economic and political chaos. The moderate Abbas, who insists on a gradual and mostly peaceful independence from Israel, is losing popularity with the more impatient political groups in the area. Hamas, which was forcibly expelled from the West Bank after the civil war in 2006, is once again gaining supporters there. It doesn’t help that the new Sunni bloc of Qatar, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia see the rulers of Gaza as the true leaders of a future Palestinian state. On the other hand, ordinary Palestinians, surrounded by poverty and misery, see little future for their country. More than 50% of the treasury’s revenue comes from Israeli transfers or foreign aid (€1 billion from the EU alone). What if Palestine suddenly gains independence and the money from Israel dries up? Will the new state be able to control local security forces if they have nothing to eat? For Israel, of course, this is a catch-22. The country cannot leave Palestine to its fate, nor can it continue to tolerate Abbas' calls for independence. After all, 300,000 Israeli settlers call the West Bank home.

Demographics are also not on Netanyahu’s side. By 2030, Israel’s Arab population is expected to reach almost a quarter, and that excludes those living in the West Bank or Gaza. If we add them, Jews will be a minority in their own country, a situation reminiscent of the demographic distribution in South Africa during Apartheid. So it is not clear how long Israeli authorities will be able to isolate Arabs from their political system. It is also not clear what will happen to Jewish settlers if a two-state solution is reached.

Amid all these contradictions, the Israeli government is forced to confront the rocket fire. After all, parliamentary elections are coming up in January. Quick military victories always pay off in such cases. The problem is that unlike “normal” wars, where you fight against a clearly defined army with clearly defined goals, Israel is facing itself. The truth is that Israel’s history is inextricably linked to that of the Palestinians, and theirs, in turn, to the politics of Syria, Jordan, and Egypt. Therefore, possible military actions against Gaza will have another goal. They should show Israel’s regional opponents, including Iran, that Israel has its way. This seems to be the only way to effectively deter in the region.

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