EKIP– Expert Club for Economics and Politics A Different Opinion
While the focus of the UN and the world's media has been on the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the rapidly escalating territorial dispute between Japan, the People's Republic of China, and the Republic of China (Taiwan) has gone largely unnoticed.
While the focus of the UN and the world media has been on the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, the rapidly escalating territorial dispute between the leading powers in the Far East has gone largely unnoticed. The discovery of potential oil and gas deposits on the Senkaku Islands, a group of uninhabited rocks near the territorial waters of Japan, the People's Republic of China and the island of Taiwan, in 1969 unexpectedly turned them into coveted territory for each of the three countries. The dispute between the three countries has existed for years, but suddenly escalated this summer when Japan nationalized the islands, which even provoked a water cannon fire between Taiwanese and Japanese ships in the waters around the disputed territory.
Brief background
The Senkaku Islands were formally annexed by Imperial Japan in 1895. The year was a pivotal one for Sino-Japanese relations throughout the 20th century. The previous year, Japan had won the First Sino-Japanese War and annexed Taiwan, Pengku, and guaranteed Korea's independence from Beijing. The new borders were established by the Treaty of Shimonoseki, which did not explicitly mention the Senkaku.
In the early 20th century, some of the islands became private property, but they never attracted settlers. Their status changed again only at the end of World War II. Defeated Japan signed the San Francisco Peace Treaty, by which its territory was returned to the borders before 1895, i.e. before the Treaty of Shimonoseki. However, control over the Senkaku Islands is regulated in a separate article of the treaty - they fall among the territories in the US occupation zone, over which the latter subsequently had the right to establish a trusteeship. The United States never exercised this right and returned the territories to Japanese control in 1971. Meanwhile, in 1968, the UN discovered potential oil and gas deposits in the waters around the islands.
Japan's position
Japan's main argument is that in 1895 the Senkaku were so-called terranullius - territories outside the sovereignty of any state, therefore they did not belong to China before the signing of the Treaty of Shimonoseki. This is also the reason why their status was not regulated in the same treaty. The first contractual settlement of the status was actually carried out with the Treaty of San Francisco, which defined a specific status for Shimonoseki and separated them from the territories subject to return to China. Therefore, Tokyo considers foreign claims as a consequence of the discovery of oil in 1968.
The position of the People's Republic of China and the Republic of China
The governments in Beijing and Taipei have had a complicated relationship since the end of the Chinese Civil War, stubbornly refusing to recognize each other internationally and claiming control over the entire territory of post-imperial China. It is therefore not surprising that both countries made claims to the Senkaku simultaneously, based on practically the same arguments. They accept that the islands belonged to imperial China even before 1895, although they cannot provide indisputable evidence of this. The common position is that the islands should have been returned to China by the Treaty of San Francisco, which was discussed at the Potsdam Conference. After the Chinese claims were not satisfied in 1945, the PRC strongly protested the return of the Senkaku to Japanese control in 1971.
Prospects for an escalation of the dispute
Of the three countries involved in the territorial dispute, the People's Republic of China is in the best position. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China has a blocking veto and can influence its decisions, effectively avoiding an unsatisfactory outcome. In addition, China possesses a huge army and nuclear weapons, which are enough to dissuade Japan from seeking a forceful solution. At this stage, however, the People's Republic of China is a passive party to the dispute and is rather waiting for the actions of the other participants. The dispute could complicate relations between Beijing and Taipei, which refuse mutual recognition and avoid any political relations. As the dispute over the Senkaku escalated, the People's Republic of China proposed to the Republic of China [i] to come up with a common position and cooperate, but the Republic of China rejected the proposal. Joint action would mean de facto recognition of the autonomy of each country, which is clearly undesirable for the government in Taipei.
Japan, on the other hand, is in a delicate position. Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution states that “... the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign national right and the threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes.” Over the years, this provision has been subject to interpretation, and Japan currently has a self-defense force that is considered an element of the country’s police force, which is inferior in armament to its neighbors. However, the deepening of the conflict may lead to a revision of this doctrine, which is likely to have long-term consequences for the geopolitical situation in the region.
Likely American intervention
At the height of the Cold War, the United States and China signed a Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security, which committed them to maintain and develop their armed forces in the event of a possible attack, as well as to cooperate in the event of an armed attack on the territory of Japan. For the time being, the United States has not taken a position on the dispute, but the aforementioned treaty could put them in a position where Japan will demand the fulfillment of its obligations. From this point of view, the dispute in the Far East is another test for American diplomacy, which must make serious efforts not to confront a nuclear power such as the People's Republic of China.
For the moment, it seems that the parties concerned have no desire to escalate the dispute and are seeking to minimize confrontations, but achieving a peaceful and mutually beneficial solution will be extremely difficult due to the military and political power of the People's Republic of China.
[i] Also known as Taiwan
