After the primaries – expectations for the troubled future of the French left

Rositsa Garcheva

Sunday, January 29, 2017, the “official” French left organized the final phase of the vote for the nomination of its presidential candidate. Approximately two million citizens participated. The result: a victory with 58.8% for the representative of the left spectrum of the “Beautiful People’s Alliance” coalition, Benoit Hamon, against a little more than 41% for his opponent - the former prime minister and social democrat Manuel Valls. Despite the short campaign, the battle was contested, and the exchanged remarks were harsh. Valls called Hamon’s program “utopian and untenable” - “ You choose between certain defeat and possible victory”, and in return he had to hear repeatedly that he carries all the negatives of the mandate of François Hollande.

First of all, we should note that in France for several months there has been talk not of one, but of several leftists. The “Reformist” – the social democratic wing, led by Manuel Valls, who took the position of candidate vacated by the current President Hollande. The far left socialists, also called “The Rebels”, who have been openly and fiercely criticizing the current presidential policy for months. “Rebellious France” – the union of the far left led by the magnificent orator Jean-Luc Mélenchon. And finally – the “En Marche” movement of the charismatic former Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron. The latter constantly proclaims that he is neither left nor right, but simply – new and outside the system, although his opponents constantly push him to the left, not forgetting to remind him that he was an advisor and minister to the socialist Hollande.

Benoit Hamon won the nomination on Sunday with his tempting proposals for a universal basic income for all French adults and a 32-hour workweek. He is also likely to have won the protest vote of those dissatisfied with the government of François Hollande (who, let us recall, reached the lowest popularity threshold in the entire history of the Fifth Republic).

Now where and how? Left-leaning socialists may prefer Mélenchon, and more moderates may join Macron. Both have high approval ratings.

Before Amon's nomination, i.e. as of February 26-27, 2017, the election sentiment survey was:

Jean-Luc Mélenchon ("Irreconcilable France" - far left) - 10%

Benoit Ammon ("Beautiful People's Alliance" - SP + left radicals) – 15%

Emmanuel Macron ("Anne March") – 21%

François Fillon ("Republicans" - traditional right) - 22%

Marine Le Pen ("National Front" - far right) - 25%.

In the current situation, new shifts are expected. Disgruntled Valls supporters will probably turn to Macron, and the more radical ones to Mélenchon. Squeezed between the two, Benoit Hamon must unite the warring wings of the Socialist Party, not to leave out the radical left and the environmentalists, and flirt with French Muslims without frustrating the descendants of the ancient Gauls.

The ordinary Frenchman has long dreamed of a leader of the rank of General De Gaulle, who would return the country to the ranks of the great powers. To be "the Boss" and make decisions "without constantly consulting Washington." He secretly envies Russia and harbors sympathy for Putin. And Benoit Ammon seems to him kind and modest and not at all presidentially imposing.

However, now that Ammon is the leader of the Socialists, he has to consolidate them. If he is eliminated in the first round of the vote in April, which is very likely, there is a danger that the SP will return to the pre-Francois Mitterrand period, when it was a small party, and take an inglorious fourth or fifth place in French politics.

And the culprit for the situation is sitting quietly in the Elysee Palace, not eating or smelling onions, and enjoying his increased popularity, which came after he prudently promised his compatriots that he would not offer them his candidacy again.

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