10 questions and answers about the elections in Germany

In many ways, German elections are a curiosity for us. They are held under a strange mixed system, called by Professor Mikhail Konstantinov "the Mercedes of electoral rules". That is why I decided to write a few lines about them as the most solid foundations of German parliamentary democracy.

1. Who has the right to choose?

All adult German citizens, i.e. everyone over the age of 18. As of September 24, 2017, this is 61.5 million people. Germans living abroad can vote by post, and must complete and send their application so that it reaches the competent election commission no later than 21 days before election day or by September 3, 2017 for these elections.

2. How often do Germans vote?

Elections to the Bundestag are held every 4 years, unless its term is terminated early. However, in the upcoming parliamentary term, the parties are expected to vote on a legislative amendment and extend it from 4 to 5 years, as happened in Austria in 2007. This approach is supported to a greater or lesser extent by all parties with a serious chance of being present in the Bundestag. It is therefore entirely possible that the legislature elected in 2021 will operate for the first time for 5 years instead of 4.

The arguments in favour of such an amendment are that most EU member state parliaments are also elected for 5 years, and that extending the term would give the legislator more time to deal with complex issues. It is also pointed out that election campaigns and subsequent coalition negotiations often eat up a lot of time at the expense of the legislative mandate.

The argument in favor of the shorter 4-year period is that it gives people more opportunities to exercise control over their elected officials.

For comparison, in our country the topic is not of particular importance, as recently our parliaments and governments have somehow failed to fully utilize their mandate.

3. How many parties are participating in these elections?

In total, 4,828 candidates, including 1,400 women, united in forty-two (42) parties and coalitions, are seeking the support of the voter. Only 6 of them have a chance of entering the Bundestag – the CDU / CSU ( EPP ), the SPD ( PES ), the Greens ( ESA/The Greens ), the Free Democrats ( ALDE ), the Left ( EPP ) and the Alternative for Germany ( AfD ).

Who are the others up to 42?

I won't list them all, but the majority belong to the political exotics. For example, the party of the "violets", the party of the tenants, of the animal defenders, or of the lovers of spiritualism.

The parody DIE PARTEI (translated as "The Party") will also participate in these elections, demanding the abolition of daylight saving time, recognition of the Greens as an endangered species and placing them under legal protection, a cap on the price of beer, and an admission that the Russians are to blame for everything.

This, of course, does not exhaust the list – against this background, there are also interesting platforms such as the " Free Voters " and the libertarian Party of Reason.

Most readers will probably be surprised by the high number of participating parties in Germany – for comparison, in the last parliamentary elections in our country, “only” 20 parties and coalitions participated. Seen in this light, the argument that Bulgaria was the country with the most parties does not hold up.

4. Why can Germans vote with 2 votes?

This is an expression of the “mixed” electoral system in force there, with each voter having two votes at their disposal: with the first they can vote for a majority candidate, and with the second – to support a certain party list. As a result, Germans can vote for a majority candidate from one party and for the list of another party.

Majoritarian elections work with a relative majority in one round – the candidate who wins the most votes in his district on election day goes to the Bundestag as the holder of a “direct mandate.” This is how 299 of the Bundestag’s mandates are distributed.

As already mentioned, with their second vote, Germans vote for party lists – this is the proportional part of the mixed system. This is how the other 299 seats in the German parliament are distributed.

If a party receives 10% of the second-place votes nationwide, it also receives 10% of the seats in the Bundestag. In reality, second-place votes are decisive in determining the balance of power in parliament. In contrast, first-place votes have no direct influence on this. Their function is to ensure a close connection between the people and their elected representatives: each constituency has its own directly elected representative. The arrangement of the lists of majoritarian candidates and the party lists is determined by the parties with their respective procedures – proposals from local organizations, a general meeting, etc.

The existing system of preferences in our country is unknown.

5. What is the threshold for entering the Bundestag?

Unlike here, where it is 4 percent, in Germany they add another unit on top. To be represented in parliament, each party must receive at least 5% of the second votes. An exception to this rule exists when one of the parties does not pass this threshold, but wins 3 direct mandates (from the first votes).

6. How is the number of deputies in the Bundestag determined?

In principle, the number of elected representatives there is at least 598: 299 directly elected and 299 elected from party lists. However, the exact calculation of the number of seats depends on the number of second votes cast for parties passing the 5 percent threshold, because the number of deputies of each party must correspond to the number of second votes.

It regularly happens that parties enter more candidates from their proportional lists than through direct mandates.

In this example, a party receives votes for 3 direct and 5 proportional seats. The legislation stipulates that anyone who wins a direct seat should also receive one seat.

Specifically, those who won direct mandates occupy the first 3 places, and the 4th and 5th places go to the first and second from the proportional list.

What happens, however, if in one of the federal states, citizens vote en masse for a majority candidate from one party, but cast their second vote for the list of another party?

And as a result, the party that performed better in terms of majority received 8 direct mandates, but only 6 mandates from its proportional list?

The solution here is to supplement the list with 2 more mandates, so that its number corresponds to the number by which the majority mandates exceed the proportional ones. The latter are called hanging mandates.

They lead to an increase in the total number of members of the Bundestag.

According to the latest electoral reform of 2013, outstanding mandates must be compensated by equalizing mandates, so as to guarantee the rule according to which the number of representatives in the Bundestag is determined by the number of second votes cast.

For this purpose, the calculations are carried out in 2 rounds: in the first round, the number of deputies is determined according to the second votes cast + the direct mandates won. If there are outstanding mandates, the second round is held, in which the total number of mandates in the Bundestag is increased until all outstanding mandates of a party are equalized with additional mandates from the proportional lists for all parties, including the party that received the outstanding mandates.

The last Bundestag elections in 2013 resulted in 4 pending mandates for the CDU. As a result, the distribution of the balancing mandates looks like this:

• 13 CDU
• 10 GSDP
• 4 Left
• 2 The Greens

The big idea here is that candidates from the majority lists should not eat away at the seats of candidates from the proportional lists. In reality, however, the total number of members of parliament is inflated – mathematical models give a possible range between 698 and 792 possible members of the Bundestag.

For this reason, the non-governmental organization German Taxpayers' Association has repeatedly pointed to this overrepresentation and, above all, the associated overbureaucratization as detrimental to public finances and has called for an upper limit of 630 deputies in the Bundestag, but so far without success.

7. When and how is the newly elected Bundestag convened?

Член 39, алинея 2 от Основния закон (конституцията) на Германия предвижда, че Бундестагът предприема първото си заседание най-късно 30 дни след своя избор. За разлика от България, където президентът свиква Народното събрание, във Федералната република това може да направи председателят на Бундестага.

8. Who and how does the Chancellor choose?

The election is regulated in Article 63 of the Basic Law. According to it, the Federal President, currently the Social Democrat Frank-Walter Steinmeier, proposes the future Chancellor to the members of the Bundestag. They then vote secretly and without prior debate. If the proposed person receives a majority of the votes of the Bundestag (as has always happened since 1949), the Federal President appoints him Chancellor. The procedure is somewhat reminiscent of the one in our country, according to which the President proposes to the National Assembly to elect as Prime Minister the candidate who has successfully completed an exploratory mandate.

If the candidate nominated by the president does not achieve the required majority, then parliament has two weeks to nominate another candidate for chancellor and accordingly elect him/her as such:

1) the person who received the most votes is a new candidate for chancellor and should receive the support of the majority of representatives, and if this happens, the president has 1 week to appoint him as chancellor.

2) if the candidate nominated for Chancellor is still not elected by the majority to this position, then the President considers whether to appoint him Chancellor nevertheless or to dissolve the Bundestag.

9. Who elects the federal government and how?

After his appointment, the Chancellor proposes to the President the appointment of the members of the future cabinet. It is up to the Chancellor alone who he proposes as Federal Minister, as well as the number of ministers and the portfolios they will hold. After their appointment by the President, they are sworn in before the Bundestag. This completes the selection of the government.

The big difference with Bulgaria is that in our country the National Assembly has greater power because it votes on both the candidate for Prime Minister and his cabinet.

10. What do sociological surveys say?

The German Wikipedia has an entire article about the poll data for the September 24, 2017 election.

It can be seen that the CDU/CSU (in the table – Union) are the clear frontrunners with forecasts giving them between 35-38%. The Social Democrats (SPD) hold a firm second place with values in the range of 21-25% and probably the most interesting question is which party will qualify for the bronze medal as the third political force.

For now, each of the 4 smaller parties has a chance, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Free Democrats (FDP) appearing most likely.

Considering the serious number of wavering voters, as well as the upward trend of the Free Democrats in recent weeks, it would not be surprising if in the end they approach their 14.5% from 2009 and leave the Alternatives convincingly behind.