EKIP– Expert Club for Economics and Politics A Different Opinion
Kiril Mirchev
As expected, at the United Russia forum in Moscow in late September, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin agreed to swap their positions in the country’s government for the next decade. Medvedev will be the leader of the party list and, accordingly, prime minister in the elections next year in March, while Putin will once again become the most important figure in Russia. The reshuffle dispelled doubts about Medvedev’s re-election as president and finally consolidated Putin’s dominant position in Russian politics, demonstrating once again that he is a true maestro of the backroom game.
Today, Russia is in the era of tandem democracy, where power is changed legitimately during elections, but with the help of a successor. Four years ago, Vladimir Vladimirovich could not run for a third time, since the Russian constitution (like the Bulgarian one) does not allow more than two consecutive terms, so someone was needed to guard the presidential chair until the elections in March 2012. For this role, Putin appointed the relatively unknown at the time, but loyal to him Dmitry Medvedev, who as a regent after a certain period fulfilled his duty and can now step down. The doors of the Kremlin will open for Putin, but this time for a 6-year term. This means that, returning after a 4-year absence, he will be able to stay in power for another 12 years - that is, until 2024.
The current decision shows how narrow the room for political maneuvering has been over the past three years. And if anything can stand in the way of Putin in the absence of an authoritative opposition, it seems to be the system he himself has built. Will Medvedev continue to suffer the humiliation of being a mere matryoshka doll in the hands of his political mentor, or will he go his own way? And with the dismissal of long-time Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, cracks have appeared for the first time in Putin's inner circle.
Presidential and parliamentary elections may be a foregone conclusion, but Russia’s future seems more uncertain than ever. The country needs radical economic and technological modernization, but real change can only come by paving the way for political competition and liberalization, more transparency in decision-making, the creation of a rule of law, and a modern administration free of corruption. These goals, however, are diametrically opposed to the system Putin has created. The country’s bureaucratic elite has spent the past 10 years amassing wealth, hoarding state assets, and gaining influence to the point where it has become a leading factor in decision-making even at the highest state levels. It is this elite that is holding back the urgent modernization of the Russian state. Putin’s return as the founder and guarantor of the current system could plunge Russia into a vicious circle, the escape from which will be a challenge for Russia’s fledgling democracy.
