Macroeconomic Monitor

2023

Effects of 3 years of Bulgaria in the Banking Union

|Full text of the analysis| At the beginning of October, it was three years since Bulgaria joined the Banking Union. The event was once advertised with great official enthusiasm. It was even explained that this marks the practical beginning of the country's membership in the eurozone. The argument – the Banking Union is a mechanism created in and …

More »

The Aristocratic Candidate

The latest election ad by Vasil Terziev that I came across seems to be starting to adapt the right rhetoric. Is Terziev's headquarters and the democratic community slowly starting to REDIPILE? I can only hope. The clip is very simple and that is precisely its genius. On a white background in a film studio …

More »

The rise in interest rates and the state of the credit market in Bulgaria - is there cause for concern?

By mid-2023, the credit market in Bulgaria is in a peculiar situation. While interest rates on loans throughout the eurozone are skyrocketing and lending is suffocating, the situation in our country, at least at first glance, is far calmer. What do the data from the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) show about the situation of the credit market …

More »

The Possible European Union

Populism, nationalism or anti-globalism – names of the new political movement emerging in a majority of European countries. Part of Steve Davis’s great realignment[1], which cyclically changes the main dividing line in Western democratic societies. New left and right, changed content of the political center, debate shifted along a different axis from the previous one. The views …

More »

Andrey Gyurov questions the political independence of the BNB

The case of the leaked video recording, which shows how the deputy governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, who heads the “Issue” department, plays a leading role in opening the election campaign of a mayoral candidate nominated by “Continuing Change”, is not just another gaffe in our public space. Even secondary questions are questions such as – did he travel in a company car …

More »

Escape from Smokers' Paradise

|Българска версия на анализа| There is fast-growing empirical evidence of how taxation affects tobacco use. In this process the important aspects to consider include the pass-on of taxes to prices, the substitutability between different tobacco and/or nicotine products, and the price elasticities (kown as well as cross-price elasticities). These all …

More »

The structural tragedy of the eurozone

|Full text of the analysis| |Official video presentation of the analysis| The eurozone suffers from deep structural problems that are hampering economic growth and leading to the accumulation of imbalances between member states, our new analysis shows. The common European currency is failing to achieve its main goals – ensuring faster growth and convergence in …

More »

More emotions than reason in disputes over utility concessions

The private management of public utilities is a topic that stirs up a lot of heated emotions. Many people instinctively believe that public utilities such as electricity, water, and the like are best managed by the state. Alas, in most cases this position is rooted in emotion rather than reason. This is very clearly evident …

More »

Legal aspects of the referendum to preserve the lev

|Full text of the analysis| On July 7, 2023, the majority in the National Assembly rejected the holding of a referendum on preserving the Bulgarian lev as a currency and, accordingly, postponing accession to the eurozone until at least 2043. The Parliament rejected the referendum proposal formulated in this way, even though all legal requirements were met and …

More »

Opinion on holding a referendum on joining the eurozone

DEAR LADIES AND GENTLEMEN OF THE PEOPLE'S REPRESENTATIVES, In connection with the upcoming consideration of the petition for organizing a referendum with the question "Do you agree that the Bulgarian lev should be the only official currency in Bulgaria until 2043?" in the parliamentary committee for civic participation, we express the following opinion on behalf of the Expert Club for Economics...

More »