EKIP– Expert Club for Economics and Politics A Different Opinion
Populism, nationalism or anti-globalism – names of the new political current emerging in a majority of European countries. Part of Steve Davis’s great realignment [1], which cyclically changes the main dividing line in Western democratic societies. New left and right, changed content of the political center, debate shifted along a different axis than before.
We know the views of national populists from the parties gaining electoral strength such as the Alternative for Germany, the National Front, the organizations of Nigel Farage, Vox, Vazrazhdane, etc. Brexit in 2016 framed their main resistance to the centralizing and progressive European Union. Eurocrats exercise increasing control over nation-states through various pan-continental institutions, sucking sovereignty from member states, in most cases by circumventing the democratic will of citizens.
The policies imposed by the center are markedly globalist and often in sharp contrast to the views of concentrated groups of European voters. The EU will close the coal industry in Bulgaria, cut Dutch farmers and force the German burgher to spend tens of thousands of euros on a home heat pump – all in an attempt to realize the elitist project of carbon neutrality. An extremely bullish market for eurosceptic projects.
At the same time, thanks to various surveys of Union citizens [2], we know that the general attitude towards the EU is rather positive, including in the more dissatisfied countries of central and eastern Europe. The low scores are for the work and policies of the specific institutions in Brussels, not for the idea of a united Europe with the possibility of travel, trade and work. It is no coincidence that populists, being true to the name attached to them by critics, have gradually started to change their views and messages. They are now less and less wanting an “exit” like the British, they would prefer something else – their European Union.
A desire that is entirely achievable when we rethink the structure of power relations within the EU. First of all, no matter how influential and strong the administration in Brussels is, the real power continues to reside in the leaders of the member states, and especially in the leaders of the large countries of the continent – the former Carolingian empire. As long as these leaders are in sync with the globalist progressive agenda, and are tolerant of the process of European integration (giving sovereignty to the EU), the Union will be left-liberal, concerned about the climate and minorities. The moment we see a French or German Orban at the helm, the change will be sharp and tangible.
Second, globalist ideas will inevitably lose ground, regardless of whether populist parties take control of enough European governments. The reason is that all these views, summarized under the label of progressive globalism, until very recently represented an unchallenged, supra-partisan consensus - in itself a marker of an exhausting political divide, about to be replaced by a new one. The consensus has been broken, and the incorporation of the new populist parties into Western political systems will put a nail in the coffin of key policies such as the Green Deal or Merkel's open doors. Even the mere presence of people like Kostadinov, Le Pen and Fico in politics will change the trajectory of everyone else. You cannot ignore the already organized 20-30-40% of the electorate.
And thirdly, more far-sighted politicians and apparatchiks (like Macron before the war in Ukraine) understand that vital American cultural wars cannot sprout on European political soil (according to Dimitar Ganev). That if they want the European project to move towards “much more together”, towards a common fiscal, towards European armed forces, and even to survive, they will need to comply with the majority of Europeans – a completely different Union will be needed. A Union that is not “united in difference”, but one that is united in common – in a common faith, a common history, a common lineage. A Europe that takes care of its economy, its global interests, its culture, its future… Europe first (familiar). For the European federation to have a chance, a new pan-European identity will be needed, which will be opposed to other identities (American, African, Middle Eastern, etc.) and at the same time will be able to accept within itself the identities that already exist on the continent. Being European shouldn't be at odds with being Polish, Bulgarian, or Portuguese, and right now it is.
What is written here is not just theorizing, although it is essentially an attempt at a structuralist forecast, the described trends are already visible here and there in the positions and statements of commentators thinking about the topic and even politicians participating in the game. Only a month ago, Hans Kundani’s book – “Eurobelota: Culture, Empire and Race in the European Project” [3] sparked discussions among British leftists, “shattering the myth of the liberal EU as an instrument of imperial amnesia” and “revealing the worrying turn of the European civilizational project”. On the other hand, as if in sync with Kundani, Kostadin Kostadinov gave a speech to the Alternative for Germany congress [4], declaring that “our common goal is to preserve our civilization and traditions” and that “today more than ever our continent and our European civilization need strong leadership”. The globalist left and the nationalist right are already evolving their positions.
We will observe developments after the EU parliamentary elections in 2024. The possible formation of a new anti-globalist-nationalist group in the EP, which does not follow the separatist Farage line, nor produces passive conservative mush a la VMRO, is a mandatory step for the de facto imposition of right-wing forces from the new division. This time, the goal will not be escape or larp, but imposing control over the European Union. It will also be important to see the positioning of the new European left, which has occupied the center so far. To what extent will it adopt the position - in order to save the European idea, we will have to sacrifice some of our views. A kind of New Labour on a continental level, this time accepting not the victory of the market economy, but the exhaustion of globalism in Europe. Will there be an awareness that yesterday's consensus will now have to be defended, instead of imposed after an "information" campaign.
The choice is starkly contrasting – either change or wither away the European idea. It will be difficult, because in order to continue integration in a healthy way, several big steps back are required. To disassemble and reassemble (or even abolish) already existing EU systems – the euro, green policy, Frontex, etc. And when they are offered to the Europeans again, to receive democratic sanction, and not to be brought in through the back door by bribing local elites, as we have seen once again with the Recovery and Resilience Plan.
After twenty years of institutional failure after institutional failure, from the debt crisis to the refugee crisis to the inflation crisis, how are you going to build a common armed forces or a finance ministry on top? Your house is built on sand, and you will raise a new floor while the ground floor, and the neighbors, are on fire. This way, only fact-checkers and MEPs will be left from the EU.
[1] You can read more about the rearrangement in our other publications – HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE, HERE and HERE.
[2] E.g. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/10/13/positive-views-of-european-union-reach-new-highs-in-many-countries/
[3] https://www.hurstpublishers.com/book/eurowhiteness/
[4] https://trud.bg/%D0%BA%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%B4%D0%B8%D0%BD%D0%BE%D0%B2-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B3%D1%80%D0%B5%D1%81%D0%B0-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%B0%D0%BB%D1%82%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%B0-%D0%B7%D0%B0-%D0%B3%D0%B5%D1%80%D0%BC%D0%B0%D0%BD%D0%B8%D1%8F-%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%89%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0-%D0%BD%D0%B8-%D1%86%D0%B5%D0%BB-%D0%B5-%D0%B4%D0%B0-%D0%B7%D0%B0%D0%BF%D0%B0%D0%B7%D0%B8%D0%BC-%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%88%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0-%D1%86%D0%B8%D0%B2%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%B8/
