EKIP– Expert Club for Economics and Politics A Different Opinion
We received this text from our reader, who asked to remain anonymous. The important question he asks is - how is taxpayer money spent in such disasters?
Watching a TV report this week about the landslide of rocks and earth on the Asenovgrad-Smolyan road, I was definitely provoked by the statement of a certain head of the Road Administration. The man, as innocently as possible, stated in front of the TV camera, in the presence of the relevant minister, that the costs of clearing this section of the road alone would probably exceed one million leva. At that moment, I had a vague feeling that the pile of rocks, although impressive, somehow did not match the amount of one million leva. Therefore, I decided to make my own calculations based on my very recent experience of renting heavy machinery and removing earth with the exact same 20-ton trucks as in the report.
For the purposes of the calculation, I will conditionally assume that renting a fadroma costs 100 BGN per machine hour, or 800 BGN for one machine shift, including the driver's salary. Since people obviously made it clear that they are working diligently to clean up the landslide, we assume that one heavy machine will work in two shifts, i.e. the rent is 1600 BGN per day. Let's assume that the heavy machines participating in the clearing (fadroma, excavators, self-propelled pneumatic breakers, etc.) are six in number, although my report showed fewer, which would mean that the costs per day are 9600 BGN.
Let's assume that in addition to hiring heavy machinery, it was also necessary to hire external specialists - sappers and climbers, for example 10 people X 100 leva per day = 1000 leva. If we assume that the clearing will last 7 days, as requested, then the expenses under this item should not exceed 75 thousand leva and this is probably the amount exceeding a million, according to the head of the Road Administration.
Therefore, the remaining one million of the estimated price should be for costs related to the removal of the amount of earth mass. And since we do not have accurate data on the amount of excavated earth mass, for the needs of the verification we will have to make a reverse calculation – how many trips of 20-ton trucks can be paid for with the amount of 1 million leva, and the number of trips should give us approximately the amount of earth mass removed. For the purpose of the calculation, I assume that the cost of one trip at a distance of 5-10 km is 100 leva, based on the fact that I personally paid a price of 120 leva for such a trip, but with the load of the earth mass included. Under this assumption, one million leva is enough to carry out 10,000 trips with the 20-ton trucks, respectively. the transported rock and earth mass should be 200,000 tons.
I can't imagine an analogue of the quantity of 200,000 tons, but just for comparison I will point out that the Chelyabinsk meteorite from 2013, when it entered the Earth's atmosphere, had a diameter of 19 meters and a weight of 11 thousand tons. To imagine 200,000 tons of rock mass, we would obviously have to imagine a body 20 times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite, crushed and scattered on a section of the Asenovgrad - Smolyan road. Why not, according to state experts, this is so.
But let's see how long it takes to remove 200,000 tons of rock and soil. If we assume that every 20 minutes a 20-ton truck is loaded from both sides of the landslide (since the area is narrow and more than 2 trucks could not be loaded at the same time), then the soil mass should decrease by 40 tons every 20 minutes, or by 120 tons per hour. If we work 16 hours a day, as we assumed above, then 1920 tons will be cleared in one day, although this is exaggerated, since the work is interrupted by loading explosives, using climbers, etc. At these inhuman rates of work, clearing 200,000 tons of rock mass will take at least 104 days.
Since clearing the road will obviously take much less time, we have clearly made an error in calculating the amount of rock mass - it should be significantly less than 200,000 tons, since the road is expected to be cleared in only 7 days. If we work at the above rates, a maximum of 13,440 tons will be removed in seven days, which makes a maximum of 672 trips with a 20-ton truck.
But in this case, if he pays 1 million leva for 672 courses, the government costs 1,488 leva per course with a 20-ton truck, which is much more expensive than I pay for one course with the same truck. Or, by my count, the costs of clearing the landslide should not exceed 150 thousand leva, but on the other hand, who am I to say how much to spend. As they say in such cases, congratulations to the winners and condolences to the taxpayers. And don't worry, looking at how it's raining this morning, there will still be more, no matter how much the finance minister sends his encouraging - deterrent - SMS.
Sofia, March 19, 2015,
Chernorizets Hrabar
They're going overboard with these accounts! Knowing what kind of crooks are running us, I wouldn't be surprised if they're praying for dumps so they can divert more cash flows 🙁
May they die in the bins, you thieving scum!
You are missing from your calculations the costs of strengthening the area so that the earth mass does not collapse onto the road again, and also the costs of repairing the area damaged by the landslide.
I guess with these calculations you can double the calculated amount, but 1 million still sounds too much 🙂
In truth, the money that the state allocates is sufficient, but in one form or another it returns to the people who allocate it - I work in construction and I know the whole system very well. It is a public secret in our country how many and which people own the big companies in the country, how they make their projects, inflate themselves, earn financing and then implement them. Even if there are inspections, which there are already constantly, the people who inspect are not construction workers and do not understand what they are inspecting - they simply count. However, some things cannot be counted. And another issue is that there is no way to have a single price for a type of SMR - capitalism does not allow it, and everyone applies on a free market with their own prices, another says whether they agree or not. In this case, they will lie the most with excavations and embankments, with the construction of a new roadbed - different fractions of stone, then on top with a thickness and type of asphalt concrete, then there will necessarily be strengthening of the bank - whether with a retaining wall, piles or gabions - a matter of design, in addition, drainages are needed, drainage ditches. And all this needs supervision, a designer - here are more expenses. The amount of a million is a lot, but I can give examples of how it is not enough or half remains. It is too subjective without having a detailed quantitative calculation - it is like telling you that I have 5 rooms in the house and asking how much it will cost me to repair the roof. So if you want a comment on the topic - well, ask some builder, look for a civil engineering company and then wonder. And if you are interested - I can tell you how in one city the sewage system on one street was paid for exactly twice.