GDP

As the winter season approaches, the economic outlook is becoming increasingly bleak, both for Bulgaria and for the whole of Europe. Data shows that gas storage facilities in the European Union are filled to relatively satisfactory levels and natural gas prices have started to decline. However, recession seems inevitable in a number of key European economies, led by …

| Full text of the analysis | In the conditions of a historic inflationary and energy crisis in Europe, the state and development of the Bulgarian economy is of particular interest. The almost unprecedented economic circumstances in which we find ourselves require more careful and in-depth regular analyses of the macroeconomic situation in the country, in order to build …

Do you remember when "smart heads" were roaming the television studios six months ago to comfort us? They were talking about how the crisis may be deep, but it will be short? How we will already be in recovery by the fall? How in 2021 we will fully recover to the levels of economic activity of 2019? How the trajectory of …

I recently spoke with a friend. Like every other conversation over the past few weeks, this one came down to discussing the protests. Even though I knew that with her profession and workplace (which is why I can't mention her by name), I asked her for her opinion on the topic. The answer …

Today, the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) accused the government of manipulating official statistical data on the country's current account, and hence - on the gross domestic product (GDP). The BSP's claim is that in practice one of the main components of GDP - net exports - was overstated in the 2019 data because ...

(Click on the infographic for a larger size) Source: NSI Comment The latest NSI data show that industrial production fell for the fourth consecutive month in September by 0.14% year-on-year. It is noticeable that the decline is slowing, so we may see some growth in October, but we doubt that this …

(Click on the infographic for a larger size) Source: NSI Comment New NSI data show that industrial production fell for the third consecutive month in August by 1.33% year-on-year, compared to 1.03% in July. All major subsectors – mining, manufacturing and energy – reported a decline in August. More importantly …

Let's not be fooled. The European economy is on the brink of recession. In the last few months, industrial production in Germany has fallen to its highest levels since 2013 (during the Euro crisis). This has dragged down the industry of a number of other European countries, such as Bulgaria, which rely on Germany as a major market …

Most economists have opinions about what stage of the business cycle an economy is in. But if you haven't noticed, many of their predictions turn out to be wrong. For example, Ben Bernanke in 2007 (then chairman of the Federal Reserve) predicted that the US was not headed for a recession and that …

Yesterday the government announced its intention to increase the salary levels in the state administration by 10%. The measure is expected to come into effect from January 1, 2019, and according to initial estimates it will cost all of us taxpayers between 800 million and 1.1 billion leva. This is certainly great news…