Macroeconomic Monitor
Начало / 2022 (страница 2)

2022

How will the political crisis be resolved?

It is increasingly clear that the conflict that led to the beginning of the current phase of the political cycle[1] is fading away, far from the focus of public attention. Removing Borisov is no longer a priority, and the coalition assembled for this purpose has disintegrated. The Borisov glue, as I have called it, is increasingly less relevant because of (i) its ritualistic …

More »

"Normal Western Country"

A temporarily popular, unorthodox macro counter-indicator is the covers of famous economic publications. When the Economist or BusinessWeek announce on the front page that a certain major trend is beginning or ending – then we can expect exactly the opposite. For example, the aforementioned British publication said in 1999 that the world was “drowning in oil”, shortly before …

More »

What is the state of Bulgaria's economy at the beginning of 2022?

| Full text of the analysis | In the conditions of a historic inflationary and energy crisis in Europe, the state and development of the Bulgarian economy is of particular interest. The almost unprecedented economic circumstances in which we find ourselves require more careful and in-depth regular analyses of the macroeconomic situation in the country, in order to build …

More »

Delayed access to healthcare due to the Covid-19 pandemic – a look at Bulgaria.

Authors: Stoyan Panchev, Arkadi Sharkov We predict over 2,300 undiagnosed cases of malignant neoplasms for 2020 and 2021. We report a 20% and 23% decrease in the number of hospitalizations for 2020 and 2021, respectively, or a total of 1.1 million less for the two years combined. We report missed activities in hospital medical care …

More »

It is neither right nor market-oriented for businesses to choose between Gazprom and "pig in a poke" energy prices

At the last minute, the parliament extended the program for compensation of the industry with the price of electricity. Although clumsily played by the Petkov government and with contradictory ideological and economic justification, the program was somewhat inevitable, due to the massive compensations distributed in Western Europe (Spain and France have ceilings below 50 euros), and …

More »

With the plan to adopt the euro, the government is putting the cart before the horse

In the context of the already numerous internal conflicts in the ruling coalition, which have been going on for months, another one has been brewing in recent weeks, this time regarding the possible introduction of the euro in Bulgaria from January 2024. At the beginning of the month, Finance Minister Assen Vassilev (from "We Continue the Change") tried to push for the introduction of ...

More »

Who is the dog barking for?

The dog in the title is the State Security (DS) – the secret services of Bulgaria during the communist regime (1944-1989). Their numerous functions also include monitoring various aspects of the country's economy. The preserved authentic documents with which the DS representatives informed the political leadership about the economy of Bulgaria are important and interesting. …

More »

Concession this: Water and Sewerage and the benefits of private provision of public water

I dedicate this article to my friend Vladimir Karolev, with whom we have repeatedly discussed the concessioning of water, district heating, resorts, beaches and services. [i] After St. George’s Day, state television spread the news that the water supply companies were planning to raise the price of water. As the drafter and introducer of the modern (since 1991) law on the protection …

More »

War, neutrality and hypocrisy

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the word “neutrality” has been used a lot in Bulgaria in relation to Russia’s actions and the subsequent sanctions. When we talk about international conflicts, the factors for decision-making suddenly multiply in geometric progression. Being closely tied to trade relations, the global economy turns out to be a pole …

More »

Money from the recovery plan – to help Ukraine

Prime Minister Kiril Petkov's proposal for individual donations to help Ukraine met with mostly negative reactions. The criticisms were varied, but an important discrepancy between the capabilities and needs of the Ukrainian economy stands out. The country's monthly budget deficit is expected to reach nearly $7 billion. If we compare it with the revenues of …

More »